The Millennium Village Project

Weak Impact Evaluation

(1.1) Lacks clear consistent and limited set of objectives: too many indicators and objectives

(1.2) Lacks serious consideration of counter-factual

- what would have happened in the absence of the project = no change)

- {Ex: mobile phone utilization went in the same direction in other areas}

(1.3) Lacks external validity

- sites were chosen that were already doing well and might not be able to apply that in more difficult areas

- to get external validity, a clear, reproducible means of selecting treatment sites and comparison sites need to be developed

Counter-argument

- Opponents are thinking more in economical sense using marginal effects question of a dollar

- How do you apply known interventions, and apply them together, is it possible to achieve the goals by using the money that the world promised?

(1.1) Counter to narrow goals - the world agreed to those goals and our challenge is to how to figure out a way to achieve those goals::

a) Adequacy

b) Probability (RCTs)

- the world made promises but there was no set strategy on how to achieve them

(1.2) Why we can't do RCTs?

-- there is already evidence for intervention (not a first order question)

-- modalities is not ex-ante and cannot be put into RCT

-- every village has a different agro-economical zones

-- year 2015 deadline

-- It's tackling an IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGE!

- How do different sites do in different scenarios?

- Have comparison villages?

Integrated development model design:

 - WB's Integrated Rural Development Project was tried and failed

- WB started and rejected (70s and 80s)

- based on the evidence, said it was an unsuccessful approach

- MVP is similar to IRD

- provides a more justification for the need for impact evaluation

It is a design problem, where we are looking at an integrated approach not just collection of interventions

The WB also rejected other things that are now seen as good:

- rejected subsidies

- rejected agriculture

- rejected public health

- so saying WB rejected IRD shouldn't be taken as a evidence that WB didn't see success

Not Sustainable

- 

- Designing end-points; how to reach the most end-goals, most poor areas

- Villages are on track to reach the goals

- They were very difficult to start